01. Status & Issues
Fear of the 1,500 Won Era, Gold Eyes 1 Million Won
KRW/USD Exchange Rate Trend
The KRW/USD exchange rate is threatening the psychological resistance line of 1,480 won. Meanwhile, gold prices have staged an unprecedented 'Super Safety' rally, rising alongside the dollar without decoupling.
Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed)
Extreme Fear
Investment sentiment is frozen, but searches for safe assets have exploded.
"Bought tickets, but might go bankrupt exchanging money"
Panic"Regretters who didn't buy low are back"
Regret"Cannot afford imported raw materials"
Despair"The value of the Won is plummeting without wings, while gold prices, feeding on fear, have smashed through the ceiling."
02. Analysis & Structure
Perfect Storm: External Shocks & Depleted Fundamentals
Mechanism: The Vicious Cycle
The Fed's high-interest stance creates 'King Dollar', while Middle East risks stimulate oil prices. This forms a Vicious Cycle leading to trade deficits and Won sell-offs.
Currency Depreciation Rates (YTD)
Asset Performance (1M)
"This is not just a strong dollar market. It reflects a loss of confidence in the fundamentals of the Korean economy."
03. Forecast & Strategy
Hedging the Chaos: Leverage the Fear
2026 Exchange Rate Scenarios
Action Plan
Less than 30% USD?
- Yes ▶Accumulate on dips
(Split buying on correction) - No ▶Go to Step 02
Existing Holders Strategy
If you have enough dollar exposure, additional buying is risky.
Final Action Guideline
- Stable ▶Switch to US Treasuries
(Lock high yield) - Aggressive ▶Hold & Wait
(Wait for 1,520 Overshoot)
Risk & Defense
Threat
Fear of buying at the peak
Defense
Split buying with FX-exposed ETFs
Threat
Physical gold transaction costs
Defense
Use KRX Gold Market (Fee/Tax exempt)
Vividat Verdict
Cash is Trash? No, 'Won' is Trash. Get Real Money (Gold & Dollar). (Holding only KRW cash is the biggest risk.)